Arafat’s death opens uncertain chapter in Mideast

By Evan Osnos
Chicago Tribune

JERUSALEM (KRT) - Yasser Arafat, the paramount Palestinian leader for nearly four decades, died early Thursday in a French hospital, closing a chapter in Middle East history and opening a new and uncertain period for Palestinians and Israelis that could lead to peace or further bloodshed.

Among the world’s longest-serving and most polarizing political leaders, Arafat was considered a hero by some and a terrorist by others. He died without realizing his lifelong goal of a sovereign Palestinian state.

Arafat, 75, died in intensive care at 3:30 a.m. Paris time, according to a spokesman for Percy Hospital southwest of Paris. He was airlifted to the French military hospital on Oct. 29 with a blood disorder, digestive problems and spells of unconsciousness. Arafat fell into a coma the night of Nov. 3 and never recovered. The cause of death was not immediately disclosed.

But his death also offers the possibility for renewed peace efforts, with a new Palestinian leadership that could seek out dialogue with Israel and the United States. The end of Arafat’s era poses a challenge to Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon to restart peace negotiations instead of relying on the “unilateral disengagement” plan that seeks to withdraw Israeli settlers from the Gaza Strip and build a barrier separating Israelis from Palestinians.

To avert a power struggle, Palestinian leaders had announced that senior officials had divided political responsibilities during Arafat’s absence. Prime Minister Ahmed Qureia took control of the day-to-day management of the Palestinian Authority while his predecessor, Mahmoud Abbas, took charge of the PLO.

Formally, Arafat will be temporarily succeeded by the speaker of the authority’s parliament, the Palestinian Legislative Council. But the current speaker, Rawhi Fattouh, is a little-known former Arafat aide who is unlikely to exert much power.

Palestinian law officially calls for elections within 60 days after a president dies in office. Arafat is to be buried in the West Bank city of Ramallah, where he spent more than two years at the end of his life, confined by Israel to his half-ruined headquarters. He will receive a formal funeral Friday in Cairo, Palestinian officials said.

“We express our condolences to the Palestinian people,” President Bush said in a statement. “For the Palestinian people, we hope that the future will bring peace and the fulfillment of their aspirations for an independent, democratic Palestine that is at peace with its neighbors.

“During the period of transition that is ahead, we urge all in the region and throughout the world to join in helping make progress toward these goals and toward the ultimate goal of peace.”

To the 3.6 million Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, the end of his era was a milestone unlike any other.

His death ignites debate on who is capable of assuming leadership over the Palestinian people at a time when the authority and Fatah are locked in struggles with Israel and militant factions. Despite recent reforms, a successor will inherit a Palestinian Authority structure that is racked with inefficiency and corruption.

The diverse pressures in Palestinian society would make it difficult for a collective leadership system to succeed for very long, analysts say. But they also do not expect any single individual to emerge who is capable of assuming all of Arafat’s powers, or earning the broad support of Palestinians.

His longevity and history allowed Arafat to take chances and be forgiven for things that lesser figures could not, analysts say. In his final days, Arafat’s powers were shifted to other officials who are likely to jockey among themselves for the lead position.

The list includes Qureia, the 66-year-old prime minister and a longtime aide to Arafat. While Arafat was hospitalized, Qureia, known as Abu Ala, took control of the National Security Council and financial management of the authority.

Political control of the PLO and Arafat’s political party, Fatah, fell to Abbas, also a longtime aide. Known as Abu Mazen, he became the first Palestinian prime minister in April 2003, before becoming embroiled in a power struggle with Arafat and resigning four months later. Abbas, 69, has been a rival of Qureia’s for years, and analysts wonder how long their partnership will last.

Western analysts have predicted that Arafat’s death could open the way for renewed peace negotiations, but longtime Palestinian observers say the growing Islamist profile makes that politically impossible in the short term.

“His absence will only weaken the peace camp and will give an opportunity for the other camp,” said Ghassan Khatib, Palestinian labor minister, “so in this regard his absence shouldn’t be taken as sudden good news for the peace process.”

© 2004, Chicago Tribune. Distributed by Knight Ridder/Tribune Information Services.